The Brotherhood Without Banhammers: A Dance With Dragons

“The Spurned Suitor” through “Epilogue” (pages 783-950)

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, um, if you haven’t finished reading–or at the very least haven’t made it to page 914 (that would be the 92% mark on your kindle), don’t click on “continue reading.” Just don’t.

I should have seen it coming, and yet it was like having the rug yanked out from under me when it happened. Like with Tyrion in CoK, we see all the decisions from the interior monologue, so we don’t see how badly the rest of the universe is taking it. So when it’s one step too far, you don’t recognize it, because you’re too close to it. It’s like truth in the corner of your eye, when you suddenly look at it head on, it’s like being ambushed by a grotesque.

And then the only one you’re emotionally attached to, because he’s the only one acting like he’s got his head on straight, gets stabbed over and over, like Caesar on the floor of the senate.

Every time you complain about how long the next book is taking, GRRM kills a Stark. Or in this case, a Snow.

I guess it doesn’t matter anymore if his parents were Rhaegar and Lyanna, or if he was Ned’s by-blow after all.

…………in other news–like there’s any other news?

I can’t believe I didn’t put together that Abel and his women were Mance and the six wildling women Jon sent out until Jon got the Bastard’s letter. Dumb. I would like to believe that if the Bastard doesn’t know Theon is with Stannis and not on the Wall, that means his story about Stannis being dead is BS.

And Dany is safe, but she can’t actually control Drogon to take her back. She at least took these days away to remind herself who she really is and what her true purpose is, now that she’s free of Meereen. Hopefully this means she will at long last turn her path towards Westeros. In the next book.

and Varys…………damn, dude. Kevin rode all the way back and did whatever he needed to do to try to put King’s Landing to rights. But we can’t have that, can we? We need Cersei and chaos so that when Aegon and Dany return, the place will fall like an overripe plum. Varys has finally tipped his hand.

“For the Realm” he says.

….Someone tell Varys that Jon is dead. Unless there’s another man with a clue up on the Wall, ready for the Others when they come…………the Realm is fucked.

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92 Responses to The Brotherhood Without Banhammers: A Dance With Dragons

  1. Kate Cox says:

    OMGWTF THIS BOOK.

    Okay. I figured someone in this book was going to get a sword to the face. But from months before it came out, my money was on Tyrion.

    That said — I don’t trust Jon Snow’s death to be accurate or permanent. We know he was stabbed and we know he lost consciousness. And in these books, you can NEVER EVER trust what happens off-screen and, frankly, only half of what happens on screen.

    Speaking of off-screen / on-screen — dude. How much truth was in that horrifying letter from Ramsay Jackass Snow Bolton? That man makes Joff look like a charming little boy in comparison.

    Also I’d been waiting for Varys to show up so when I got to the Epilogue what I announced to the living room was, “FINALLY.” (The cat responded, “mmmrrw?” and the husband responded, “You’re talking to your book again.)

    My biggest WTF though: Jaime / Brienne. SUCH a throwaway paragraph with SO DAMN MUCH WTF in it. For what it’s worth… I’m not sure that really was Brienne.

    • anibundel says:

      After calming down (because I wrote this less than 30 minutes after finishing the book), it occurred to me that Ghost was not killed. Only Jon. So he’s going to just warg into Ghost.
      Perhaps he might even run into Branwolf or Brantree or Brandor?

      • Kate Cox says:

        I find myself wondering if the warging thread and the dragonriding thread are going to merge somehow, eventually…

      • There are two very easy ways around what happened to Jon.

        1. He doesn’t actually die. He is stabbed several times, but he doesn’t die. Brandon Stark fell from a tower onto flagstones and lived, hale and hearty enough despite his paralysis to survive the climate he’s been carried through all this time.

        2. OK, so he dies, but we already know that the priests of R’hllor can bring people back from the dead for a time, and there’s a certain red priest in easy reach that has had her misinterpretations thrown right in her face, and the truth is in front of her. If he’s actually dead, he won’t be for long, since she’ll give the same treatment that Thoros of Myr gave to Beric Dondarrion. Beric Dondarrion could light his own sword ablaze after his rebirth with his own blood (I may have to find that passage again, but I think that’s what happens). Thoros mentioned that the wildfire he used to use to light his swords when he was in King’s Landing would destroy the blades after a single use, but no one mentions Dondarrion caching swords for this purpose. Melisandre sees visions of Jon with a burning sword over and over.

        • FireWraith says:

          Another option is that he rises as a wight. We know already from Coldhands that not all the wights serve the Others – and if speculation that Coldhands is/was Benjen Stark proves true, that would lend credence to Jon Snow being otherwise apart from that influence.

          Of course, this is a longshot, and I much prefer Melisandre bringing him back. :)

      • onefinemess says:

        That was my immediate assumption… I totally missed the Abel -> Mance thing. The chapter sequencing there threw me way, way, way off.

    • enstar says:

      out of curiosity.. why do you think that it wasn’t brienne?

      • Kate Cox says:

        Something about it feels WRONG. That’s not how Brienne would act. I feel that it’s either someone masked as her (however that might mean) or that if it is her, Cat really *did* hang her and she’s since had the Thoros treatment.

        • enstar says:

          yeah maybe. but there’s not enough there for me to really say. it’s, what, a half a page, all from jaime’s pov. in my perfect world, it’s really her and she’s fine, and somehow convinced lady stoneheart that jaime could be a great ally in the quest to rescue the daughters.

          but, um, my perfect world is NEVER EVER RIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THESE BOOKS JON SNOW ARRRRRRGGGHH

    • JHarper2 says:

      Once Dany flew off on Drogon and everyone decided she was dead, I was sure she was alive because that is the way Martin rolls. And I didn’t think Tyrion because Martin has a soft spot for dwarfs and broken things. So from about 3/4 of the way through that meant Jon because he was being all responsible and adult and honourable.

      When I peeked and saw that Dany had one more chapter and Jon didn’t….
      But when Jon locked up Ghost and went out alone, well that just reeked (sorry) of Robb and the Red Wedding. But I thought that it would be the Queen and her guards that killed him, assassination by the brothers, that I didn’t see.

      I now expect that Dany will return to Meereen, not on Dragon wings but with a Klalasar of Dothraki after Drogon fries Klal Jhogo.

      • onefinemess says:

        The whole locking up Ghost thing…. that was dumb. Argh. Well, so was publicly breaking his vow or whatever.

        I do not want to ever read another Watch chapter (unless it’s Jon-Ghost or something).

        I was over Dany this entire book. I’m still over her, her chapters were a string of obnoxious failures (which is fine, in miniature…but for the entire span of the book was too much for me).

  2. enstar says:

    jon is not dead. he just isn’t. or, rather, he will come back.

    because the more i think about it, the more i am convinced that he is meant to be azor ahai reborn–so he needs to be reborn. whether that means warging into ghost permanently, or whether the stabbing job wasn’t as thorough as it needed to be and jon hides in ghost until he can be revived…

    shit, i don’t know. i just had to take a few days to recover when i read that chapter. seriously, fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuck.

    there are so, so many plot threads that grrm needs to deal with in the last two books. i honestly don’t see how he’s going to be able to fit it all in without rushing things.

    • Kinase says:

      On a related note: What do we think of Jon’s decision to ride south? To the disgruntled Watch members, it must have seemed like Jon was using the beefed up Watch to gain his father’s castle. From my point of view, knowing what we know about Bolton/Snow, Jon’s decision was a rash one, undoing much of the good he accomplished throughout the book.

      • onefinemess says:

        Yeah, it seems kind of out of the blue, but I guess it was just supposed to be one thing piling on top of another. You’d think the smart thing there would have been to let the Queen know and let those dudes go avenge Stannis or something. I’m not sure what pushed Jon over the edge.

        • Kinase says:

          I guess it’s supposed to be indicative of Jon’s connection to Arya that a threat to her makes him break his vows after all the cajoling by Stannis he had previously weathered. Also, I don’t trust anything about that last chapter, both Jon’s death and Ramsay’s letter. It’s going to be a very long wait until tWoW.

          • Andy says:

            Agreed.
            I would say that I don’t think there is any way that Jon is dead for good (if he’s dead).

            Ramsay’s letter is a little more troubling. It seems likely that he has Mance, but as for Stannis being dead – that’s a pretty huge leap from having an army encamped like that and the banker guy showing up. Not to mention that they didn’t show us either the Karstark’s treachery (which he should have been warned of by the Banker, right?), or whatever Manderly was planning. I think that story has a few more chapters in it.

    • Kate Cox says:

      Well, what are we still juggling? Let’s see.

      - Catelyn / Thoros / all of those folks, also including Brienne’s story.
      - Varys and his machinations, which… wow.
      - Stannis. If Ramsay’s letter is true, he’s out of the picture. If Ramsay’s letter is false, he’s still in.
      - Boltons. Ramsay needs to be lit on fire by a dragon. Like, now.
      - Greyjoys: Theon is still missing with Jeyne Poole. Asha is unknown. Aeron: unknown. Euron: unknown. Victarion: a problem.
      - Jon Snow: presumed dead but maybe not.
      - Melisandre and the whole church of the Red God.
      - Martells: pretty much done for, since Quent went all Trogdor-baiting on us and got burninated. Though they still have Myrcella, y/y?
      - Lannisters: Tywin: dead. Kevan: dead. Jaime: gallivanting in the woods with looks-like-Brienne. Tyrion: gallivanting with sellswords on the wrong side of the ocean. Cersei: temporarily harmless, probably going to make one more failed bid for power / vengeance. Tommen: second-grader.
      - Targaryens: Dany’s flying around with a dragon she can’t control. Aegon: somewhere, causing trouble – known by Varys.
      - Starks: Jon Snow: NOT DEAD DAMMIT. But probably not exactly respected Lord Commander of the Wall anymore, either. Bran: a tree. Rickon: being searched for by Davos.

      Who am I missing? I mean, who important? I don’t really care what Jorah Mormont, Quentyn Martell’s buddies, or the Sand Snakes are up to.

      • anibundel says:

        That pretty much covered all of it. I assume Jaime will catch us up with Lady Stoneheart. I don’t think Stannis is dead, but with reports of it being so, plus Jon’s human body dead, I’m sure Stannis’ widow twit and Melisandre will power struggle with whatever fool tries to pick up where Jon left off–not to mention the wildlings are going to go nuts when they find out what happened.
        Two dragons loose, headed to find their future masters. One of whom is no longer Jon–probably is Aegon. The third might be Tyrion’s? Too much to hope?
        When your last functioning Lannister is best suited for reading the Harry Potter books, the kingdom is no longer yours. Though Cersei was still scheming. Meek act or no, she was asking for Taenda, and got a white cloak on the Frankenstein That Rides. I would never count her out.
        Oh ARYA. You forgot Arya.

        • Kate Cox says:

          Right! “Ser Strong” and Arya. Knew I was forgetting folks.

          Arya’s just being badass junior over in Braavos is all. No idea where her story’s going, other than further into the Faceless Men.

          • enstar says:

            this is why i am afraid the story is going to get rushed. there are so many characters who seem to be in the middle of their arcs–so many pov characters, for that matter–that two books doesn’t seem to be enough to give them all the space they need. let’s also not forget about sam, too.

            • Kate Cox says:

              The thing is, a lot of those threads can come together fairly quickly and easily. Can, of course, being different from “will,” because this is GRRM we’re talking about and he never does anything quickly and easily. So they won’t, and it’ll be a mess.

              • enstar says:

                but i get annoyed when the threads come together unnecessarily fast, or when too much happens in between chapters. i kind of wish he had introduced fewer pov characters in the past three books.

                • anibundel says:

                  I have a real issue with how Feast For Crows and Dance With Dragons was handled. I think whoever Martin’s editor is should be fired for being too permissive and too close to the series. he should have been forced to streamline more. And he should never have been allowed to release a volume where major characters were absent. When it comes to seasons 4 and 5 of Game of Throes (assuming the series lasts that long) they’re going to have to combine these two books into chronological order. Because you know there’s no way they’ll film a whole season sans Dinklage.

                  • Kism says:

                    better to leave characters out, than to leave everything at “nothing happened for a book.” Dany, Brienne, Jaime — if you cut their stories in half, NOTHIGN HAPPENS. And Theon’s would be unbearable if severed.

      • Captain Button says:

        Two more books? Did I miss a memo?

        Recall the prologue. If Jon can pull off a really steep skinchanger learning curve he could pemanently possess Bowen Marsh or one of the other, and live on that way.

        (Is “Marsh” the bastard surname for the Moat Callin region?)

        Varys, yes, but where did the kiddy assasin squad come from?

        Another reference spotted: “The Ugly Little Girl” chapter title probably refers the the Isaac Asimov story “The Ugly Little Boy”.

        With Jon unavailable will the rescue expedition northward go forward?

        Will the Night Watch and the Queen’s Men try to slaughter all the surrendered wildings like they have wanted to all along?

        Has Ramsay taken the “Sickest F*ck in Westeros” Westeros title away from Vargo Holt? (Is HE really dead?)

        • Kate Cox says:

          Marsh is not a bastard name, to the best of my knowledge. (What do we have there — Snow, Storm, Stone, Sand, Rivers, Flowers… there have to be at least 7 if not more, which am I missing?)

          Anyway I’m going to bet that Varys has been working with small children for a long time. Little birds and little mice…

        • Martin said he wanted to finish the series in two books, but he wasn’t making any promises.

          Personally, I think he’s going to require three (especially if Jon Snow is actually permanently dead).

          • anibundel says:

            You know why I’m convinced we will wrap up in two books?
            I got three letters for ya:
            H.B.O.

            I believe down to the heels of my cute little platform wedges that the only reason we saw Dance With Dragons this year was due to HBO. I believe it will only take two-three years to get Winds of Winter–because, again HBO. They need the product to keep coming, and in a timely manor, to keep the audience interested. And I believe A Dream of Spring will arrive in the next six-seven years. Because, once again, HBO will need to have that book done for the series to finish in a timely manner. Martin was a TV writer first–Martin respects TV, and TV knows how to get Martin on a deadline.
            Also, as Alyssa said over at Think Progress, HBO doesn’t screw around.

            • Kate Cox says:

              I imagine Alfie Allen and the HBO executives responsible for budget all shitting themselves over this book. For different reasons.

              Even pixel-born dragons don’t come cheap…

      • Theon is not actually missing with Jeyne Poole. The Iron Bank rep dumps him and Jeyne in the snow in front of Asha at the end of her last chapter (The Sacrifice). Where they are after the theoretical battle with Ramsay Bolton is another question, but they are with the rest of Asha’s small band of ironmen.

        • Kate Cox says:

          Well, yes, but if no other character knows where they all are then that’s “missing” as far as Westeros is concerned. ;) I guess it’s the difference between “lost” and “not found?”

          • OK, maybe I was being a bit pedantic.

            If Theon and Jayne’s story had ended (in the book) with them jumping into the snowstorm, they would be really missing as far as we, the reader are concerned. They go off into the void of the North, and no clue as to where they ended.

            But we know where they ended up. We also are told by an incredibly unreliable narrator that something happened there not long after. Their fate is uncertain, but they aren’t really missing.

            • FireWraith says:

              Would Ramsay Snow/Bolton lie about something? Yes, absolutely. How does he know about Mance? Well, he caught them, obviously – we know they likely didn’t escape. How does he know about Stannis’s sword? Mance and the women knew about it, certainly, and Ramsay has likely tortured them within an inch of their lives, so it’s easily believable they told him everything.

              Where we get to inconsistency is the fact that Ramsay does not have Theon and Jeyne. This means that either:

              1) The Boltons defeated Stannis, but Theon, Jeyne, and possibly Asha and her men fled.

              2) Ramsay is lying, and thinks Theon and Jeyne fled to the Wall.

              At this point, both are equally likely possibilities.

      • Josh says:

        If Jon is dead enough to no longer be the Lord Commander, he may also be dead enough to be free from the Night’s Watch vows. I believe they pledge till death not eternity.

        This would leave him free to become Lord of Winterfell (or King in the North or to sit on the Iron Throne). It’s been a while on this, but if I remember correctly, Robb dispatched a few lords to find Howland Reed with instructions concerning his succession – he had told Catelyn that he wanted to make Jon his heir.

        I think there are a few others lying about who you may or may not care about. GRRM has quite a bit of work to do.

        -Sam at Oldtown,
        -Baelish and Sansa in the Vale,
        -the Hound, if he’s not dead,
        -Barristan,
        -the Greatjon,
        -Howland Reed (I hope),
        -Gendry, Edric Storm and Robert’s parade of other bastards,
        -Robert Strong,
        -the new khal,
        -Connington and “Aegon”,
        -the High Septon, and
        -Illyrio (who may include in Varys’ schemes).

        • Kate Cox says:

          I think a lot of those characters are just kind of placeholders or eyes that help move things along. Sam, Littlefinger, and Sansa are important there. I think Robert’s bastards have mainly played their narrative roles already, and I wrap Connington up into the whole Targaryens / Varys plot.

          I’m starting to wonder if we’ll ever hear from Howland Reed, or if we’re going to need the question of Jon’s parentage solved for us by Bran. (All signs point to him having seen a pregnant Lyanna in the Winterfell godswood… maybe eventually he’ll be able to glimpse it all.)

          I did forget about all of the holy armies, though. That’s going to be trouble.

          • Josh says:

            I think you’re pretty spot on. Illyrio can probably be wrapped up in Varys’ plotting too, and the new khal will be a part of Dany’s story.

            The only character you dismiss who may still play a big roll is the Hound. He’s got relationships with Sansa and Arya, a fear of fire to overcome, and he’ll be needed to deal with Robert Strong. If he’s alive, he’s at the Quiet Isle with a religious order…he could be their champion in Cersei’s trial.

            I also forgot about Davos (presumably covered in the Rickon story) and Mance. So many characters.

            You got me on Barristan and the Greatjon though. I only included those two up there because I always enjoy them…though not as much as Wyman and Wylla Manderly. I could read a spin-off series on those two.

            I hope we hear from Howland even if Bran knows about Jon. Beyond the story of Jon’s parentage, he can tell us what happened at the Tower of Joy and why Ashara Dayne killed herself. I think it’s still possible for him to show; we have no reason to think he’s dead, and Robb sent Glover and Mormont to find him.

            • anibundel says:

              But the Hound is dead. Buried-dead.

              • Kate Cox says:

                I thought he was last seen in the monastery, digging graves? (I could definitely be wrong, there’s kind of a lot going on all at once.)

              • Josh says:

                The Elder Brother/Priest (?) tells Brienne that the Hound is dead. We later see a hooded man with the Elder Brother’s island who fits Sandor’s description.

                The Elder Brother/Priest could be lying. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve heard of a death, but not scene it occur and had it been shown a lie: Wyman Manderly told the world he killed Davos, Theon/the Boltons did the same with Bran and Rickon.

                The Elder Brother/Priest could also be telling the truth in Ben Kenobi point of view version of the truth. The “Hound” may have died, but Sandor may still live.

                I just realized something interesting, but probably of no consequence. Ned, Robb and Jon are all killed in a book in which they personally beheaded a prisoner. I guess it’s a good thing Rickon missed his father’s lesson at the beginning of the series.

                • Darth Thulhu says:

                  “The Elder Brother/Priest could also be telling the truth in Ben Kenobi point of view version of the truth. The “Hound” may have died, but Sandor may still live.”

                  If the Hound is dead, like Ser Gregor Clegane is dead, there may nonetheless be a new holy warrior serving the Seven once known as Sandor.

                  Which would mean that in the trial-by-combat for Cersei, she may well be defended by “Not-the-Mountain” and opposed by “Not-the-Hound”.

                  My money’s on Sandor.

                  • Eudaemonic says:

                    If you’re correct, then that would make Mrs. E’s year. The Hound was her favorite character by far.

      • FireWraith says:

        I strongly suspect the Martells will ally with Aegon, possibly in the form of a marriage offer between him and Arianne. Doran Martell has been looking for an excuse, and has the army and the support that Aegon needs. Aegon is his nephew, and Arianne is Aegon’s first cousin (though considering what the Targaryens think about brother-sister marriage, cousins is no barrier). Either way, Dorne can’t help but rally to Aegon I think.

      • onefinemess says:

        The Martells were a huge waste of paperspace. Their plot elements could have been done off camera or, if they were just there to get pieces moving (dragons)… any old thing could have done that.

        I’m… really confused as to why the red god appears to be the only one answering prayers/granting powers at this point. I’m wondering if it’s not an actual god, and just a “school” or aspect of magic use that became entombed as a religion in the magic-poor years. Not much else is making sense right now – although they do mention another whose name must not be spoken… so maybe there are *only* two deities. That wouldn’t make any sense, but would actually be pretty goddam funny.

  3. Nathan Black says:

    So I’ve been re-reading and noticed something cool that I totally missed. I think I know where the missing Frey’s went.
    Lord Manderly supplied the food and drink for the wedding. he is described as the very picture of a jolly fat man. her served the first slices of his “pork” pie to “Roose Bolton and his fat Frey wife, the nest to Ser Hosteen an Ser Aenys, the sons of Walder Frey. “The Best Pie you have ever tasted my lords” the fat lord declared/ “Wash is down with Arbor gold and savor every bite. I know I shall”
    As manderly leaves the hall he was calling for a song about the Rat Cook, which I think is the story that we hear from bran about somone who avenges the betrayal of their castle by secretly killing the betrayers and. … serving them in pies.
    Also if Manderly supplied his own food and drink, he has not taken bread and salt from the Boltons.

    • Kate Cox says:

      Ooooooh, sneaky.

      Also I love the idea of Frey pie.

    • enstar says:

      brilliant! “the north remembers.”

    • FireWraith says:

      Oh, very nice. I knew he was going to get revenge somehow, though I was expecting him to poison all the food and simply sacrifice himself (since he’s old/etc anyway). I’m also wondering if he doesn’t turn on the Boltons and their allies in the coming battle, or at least seek revenge against the Freys.

    • onefinemess says:

      Ohh! That’s a good one.

      SOMETHING AT LEAST.

      God, I need something positive to take from this book. Why is Bolton not dead arrggghhhhh. This series isn’t supposed to have real arch-villain types..just kill him (both of them) and be done with it!

    • Josh says:

      I’m totally on board with the Frey pie. Another point of support is that Manderly made a point of telling Davos that he intended to give the Freys guest gifts (horses) when they left White Harbor. I presume this ends their status as guests under his house…in other words, he’s not like the Freys and Boltons. He’ll kill his enemies, but he won’t kill men protected by the rights of guests, or take bread and salt from those he intends to harm.

      I’ve been wondering about another little detail that’s on the Frey pie level of importance. Do people think that Ramsay gelded Theon? Ramsay laughs whenever he mentions Theon and women, Theon is terrified of taking off his clothes, and often says that he isn’t a man.

  4. Josh says:

    @Anibundel: Thanks for putting this on your blog. I’ve been reading TNC for a long while, and it’s great to have a place where his community of readers can discuss ADWD.

    @enstar: I’m in total agreement with you; Jon is looking more and more like Azor Ahai. My first inkling occurred when Jon was dreaming about battling the Other atop the wall with red sword. After I finished the book, and out of concern that we’d lose Jon as a character, I went back and looked at the prophecies concerning Azor Ahai (check out http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/Prophecies/ for a collection of all the prophecies/dreams). My tentative conclusion is GRRM played a long con . I think a significant number people who seriously discuss the books have assumed (1) that Dany was Azor Ahai, and that (2) Melisandre was wrong in thinking it was Stannis. The events in ADWD seem to point to GRRM fooling people on (1).

    My overly long theory, which you read at your own peril:

    We’ve seen the Azor Ahai discussed at least twice. First, in aCoK: “In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him.” Second in SoS: “when the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt”. The important points seem to involve: the end of summer, a bleeding red star, a red sword, smoke, and salt.

    Many readers, myself included, have assumed that the “red star bleeding” is a reference to the red comet that is spotted just before Dany is figuratively re-born upon entering the the “smoke” filled pyre and crying tears containing “salt”. The problems Dany being Azor Ahai are that she is not truly born again, a comet isn’t a star (I think it’s actually a ball of ice), she lacks a sword, and the events at the end of GoT occur during the long summer, not after.

    Jon’s death, whether complete or some kind of warging into Ghost, does a much better job of fulfilling the prophecy. First, Jon’s first wound was smoking. Second, Bowen Marsh was crying salty tears as he stabbed Jon. Third, Jon was killed under a bleeding red star: Ser Patrek’s heraldry was a five pointed star (he had blue stars on his cloak), and Wun Wun tore off his arm “with a spray of bright red blood” just prior to the stabbing. Fourth, Jon’s aforementioned dream about wielding a red sword. And fifth, in the epilogue we learn that winter has come. On that point, I’ve got the following timeline: Day 1 – last day of summer; Day 2 – first day of winter, Jon decides to save the Wildlings at Hardhome, Jon receives Ramsay’s letter after mentioning the full moon, Jon plans with Tormund for TWO hours; Day 2/3 – Jon is stabbed, Kevan Lannister notes the full moon in the epilogue, Kevan see the white raven signaling the start of winter. The Azor Ahai prophecy begings “a day after a long summer”. I’m not sure whether this means the first or second day of winter, but in either case (depending on whether Jon was stabbed before or after midnight), the events described in the prophecy almost certainly occurred literally a [single] day after a long summer.

    Other related points:

    - The prologue and scenes involving Bran demonstrated that skinchangers can reside in animals after their bodies die
    - Melisandre keeps asking the flames for an image of Azor Ahai, and instead of Stannis she is shown Jon. I think her visions are accurate, she’s just not very good at interpreting them. She also sees an image of Jon as a man, then a wolf, then a man again.
    - We get a reference to the ice cells where Jon was storing the wights in the Jon chapter
    -Way back in earlier books, Bran had a vision of Jon’s body on a slab of ice, and Dany saw a blue flower (i.e. the blue roses associated with Lyanna/Rhaeger) growing in the Wall.

    Aside from this, GRRM has given us some great new mysteries:

    -Is Aerys the father of Jaime and Cersie? And/or is he the father of Tyrion?
    -Is Aegon who Connington thinks he is or is he just a boy Varys and Illyrio have been grooming to fool Connington and Westeros? (Note in either case he could be Dany’s “mummer’s dragon as Varys was a mummer.)
    -Who is Septa Lemore?
    -Was Ramsay’s letter real?
    -Was it Brienne/how did she survive?

    Hope people don’t mind me posting a long reply. I’ve been holding this for a couple days waiting for people to finish.

    • enstar says:

      awesome. this is awesome. i’d forgotten about some of the other visions of/pertaining to jon.

    • Minor point: Fall is a recognized season in Westeros. I think it was at the beginning of Clash that the first white raven arrives (on Dragonstone) heralding the end of summer. The raven Kevan Lannister sees heralds the change from autumn to winter.

      • Josh says:

        I think you’re right. Great catch. I totally forgot about that. That part of the theory did sound good to be true. Luckily fall doesn’t change the fact that Dany’s rebirth was during summer, and Jon’s will be after.

    • anibundel says:

      I believe all lannisters are the seed of Tywin, period. There’s been nothing to hint otherwise, not for the Twins and not for Tyrion either, and I’ve been looking for both. Certainly nothing on the level of Jon’s hinted at parentage.

      • Josh says:

        I think Tyrion is definitely a Lannister. Jaime and Cersei, I’m not so sure, and I think there are pieces of evidence that could support the claim that they are Aerys’ kids.

        Why does Tyrion have the traditional “Ty” name for first born male Lannisters (Tywin, Tytos) while Jaime does not?

        Tywin makes a very big point of calling Tyrion his son, and at one point, I think, he angrily tells Jaime that he is not or is no longer his son.

        Then there’s the Jaime/Cersei relationship – very Targaryen.

        And the big piece from ADWD: Barristan remembers that Aerys was in love with Tywin’s wife and took “certain liberties” on the wedding night that Tywin never forgave him for.

        If they are actually Targs, it makes Jaime’s slaying of Aerys a kinslaying/patricide alongside a kingslaying. And, it makes the scene where Ned finds Jaime sitting on the Iron Throne all the more interesting. At that point, Jaime may have had the best claim to the throne.

        I think the biggest flaw in this is that GRRM would be putting new Targs everywhere the eye can see, though I don’t “Aegon” is really a Targ.

    • onefinemess says:

      This is what the internet is for! (So people more observant than I can point out all the little things I have missed/forgotten).

      The throway scene with Brienne was such a cruel taunting. I’m also not convinced it is really her. I mean, doesn’t it sound like something zomCait would put someone up to doing?

      I totally missed any clues there may have been that Aerys could have been any of the Lannister’s father. (This is probably because I zone out when they start talk about history and a bunch of other names I don’t recognize).

      • Josh says:

        I think I do the opposite. Those history scenes have become the most interesting to me, but I think that’s b/c I like looking for clues.

        The biggest complaint I had with GRRM’s writing in this book was that, I believe on more than one occasion, Barristan was about to reveal crucial historical details to Dany…and they were interrupted (to never return to the subject). I think that plot device is a little cheap.

  5. Captain Button says:

    A bunch of wildings are still north of the Wall, in Hardhome. The remains of the failed naval rescue mission are there too. A land rescue expedition may be en route.

    Bran et al are also north of the Wall somewhere.

    How will those two interact? Or will they?

    Meanwhile in King’s Landing, assuming Cersei is cleared in the trial, how much power will she still have? Will she become Regent again? Who does she have on her side against the Tyrells besides Qyburn and Ser Robert Strong?

    With Ser Kevan dead, will the refinancing deal to pay off the Iron Bank of Braavos go through, or will Cersei reinstate her fiscal policy of being really stupid?

    Jumping back to the Wall, will the deal with the Iron Bank hold?

    If Stannis is dead or captured, may the Iron bank would be better off financing Aegon?

    • Kate Cox says:

      Oh. OH OH OH OH OH.

      You were writing about the deal with the Iron Bank and I kept thinking, “Frankly, in the midst of all this mayhem and death and civil war and famine and Boltons and winter, why does the Iron Bank even matter? What could the Braavosi possibly do that would realistically affect the story at this point?”

      Well, they could send a faceless man.

      One born in Westeros, who’d know her way around.

      • The Iron Bank sends its representative to Stannis, saying that they will recognize his claim as legitimate if he will pay the debts owed by the realm. Either agrees then dies, or tells the Iron Bank representative he won’t pay any debt incurred since the death of Robert, which the Iron Bank representative probably wouldn’t agree with. Seeing no other option, they beseesh the Many-Faced God for the gift of death for the king that has robbed them. Tommen is the thief, so they send the faceless girl to King’s Landing, and justice is served for the Iron Bank, House Stark in one swoop.

        • onefinemess says:

          People here are fighting to win the internet and I don’t know who to give the prize to.

        • Josh says:

          I remember reading years ago some theories that the Braavosi, or just the faceless men, were responsible for the Doom of Valyria. I think it came from a throwaway line in AFFC where Arya is told that they the Braavosi were slaves who eventually killed their masters. The crazier theories even posited that they were working with the Others to bring death to the world

          Whether or not any of that is accurate, I think you’re right. The Iron Bank is a much more important player than we’ve been shown so far, as is coin generally. After all it is their respective abilities to finance the realm that has given the Lannisters their power and allowed Baelish to rise up in the world.

      • anibundel says:

        OMG, YOU ARE BRILLIANT.

        • Nathan Black says:

          and not only that Ayra know’s how to get into the castle. this really is brilliant

          • Josh says:

            Arya is also of an age where she could pass for one of Varys’ little birds. The faceless man have said they’ll take her other senses at some point. If they want to get Varys, assuming they’re opposed to him or someone hires them, why not send her when she’s without a tongue?

      • Nathan Black says:

        Overall thoughts.
        first off, I think I liked this book more than any since the 1st. It SURPRISED me in many ways. The reappearance of a character from the short stories, completely out of the blue. Aegon Targaryen, with Varys statements in the end, it makes perfect sense that Aegon is the real Aegon. Varys would have been one of the few in position to smuggle the babe out of King’s Landing and out of harm’s way. Jon’s being caesar’d was foreshadowed and looks obvious after the fact but because of the way the scenes at the wall were written it came as a total shock. The entire Dany storyline was nice and I did not expect the Drogon to show up when he did.

        More than those, it was the subtleties and innuendos, for example Tyrion slowplaying the Halfmaester at Cyvasse to manipulate him into gambling secrets to find out the truth of who Aegon is. Somewhere someone mention the Iron bank making new princes when they default, and then sure enough later in the book that’s exactly what their doing. Coldhand’s identity firmed up a bit, (it does seem clear he’s Benjen Stark) The scene with Barristan talking about the tragedies that love wrought on the Targaryens, and not only that but the strong hints that Aerys was in love with Joanna Lannister, maybe that wild ass theory about Tyrion holds some water after all. Even the Arya’s assassination of the Insurance man, she either posion’d him with the coin because he bit every coin, or my preference, figured out he had a weak heart and slipped the coin of the faceless men into the merchants purse she cut, causing him to have a weak heart attack when it was given to him.

        as I said before, I think the transformation of Theon, from Reek to Theon again was some of the best writing in the series in my opinion.

        It’s odd, I love debate and discussing music, politics anyhting really, but I’m really uncritical when it comes to books. I almost never mind blowing out the storylines and adding POV characters, I can understand the criticism, it just doesn’t bother me. Anything that makes the world more detailed, I’m for, when I read I’m so totally immersed in the story that I just don’t notice things that many in the Horde and elsewhere complain about. I’ve read online people complaining about this book, I just don’t understand where their coming from.

        • anibundel says:

          Where are the hints that Aerys loved Joanna? I totally missed that.

          • Nathan Black says:

            Barristan to Dany “Prince Aerys … as a youth, he was taken with a certain lady of Casterly Rock, a cousin of Tywin Lannister. When she and Tywin wed, your father drank too much wine at the wedding feast and was heard to say that it was a great pity that the lord’s right to the first night had been abolished. A drunken jape, no more, but Tywin Lannister was not a man to forget such words, or the … the liberties your father took during the bedding.” His face reddened. “I have said too much, Your Grace. I—”

            • Nathan Black says:

              Here’s the full conversation.

              “Tell me,” Dany said, as the procession turned toward the Temple of the Graces, “if my father and my mother had been free to follow their own hearts, whom would they have wed?”
              “It was long ago. Your Grace would not know them.”
              “You know, though. Tell me.”
              The old knight inclined his head. “The queen your mother was always mindful of her duty.” He was handsome in his gold-and-silver armor, his white cloak streaming from his shoulders, but he sounded like a man in pain, as if every word were a stone he had to pass. “As a girl, though … she was once smitten with a young knight from the stormlands who wore her favor at a tourney and named her queen of love and beauty. A brief thing.”
              “What happened to this knight?”
              “He put away his lance the day your lady mother wed your father. Afterward he became most pious, and was heard to say that only the Maiden could replace Queen Rhaella in his heart. His passion was impossible, of course. A landed knight is no fit consort for a princess of royal blood.”
              And Daario Naharis is only a sellsword, not fit to buckle on the golden spurs of even a landed knight. “And my father? Was there some woman he loved better than his queen?”
              Ser Barristan shifted in the saddle. “Not … not loved. Mayhaps wanted is a better word, but … it was only kitchen gossip, the whispers of washer-women and stableboys …”
              “I want to know. I never knew my father. I want to know everything about him. The good and … the rest.”“As you command.” The white knight chose his words with care. “Prince Aerys … as a youth, he was taken with a certain lady of Casterly Rock, a cousin of Tywin Lannister. When she and Tywin wed, your father drank too much wine at the wedding feast and was heard to say that it was a great pity that the lord’s right to the first night had been abolished. A drunken jape, no more, but Tywin Lannister was not a man to forget such words, or the … the liberties your father took during the bedding.” His face reddened. “I have said too much, Your Grace. I—”

          • onefinemess says:

            That’s one I actually caught! I didn’t connect it to parenting any of the Lannisters though (it would be the oldest I would think – who is older, Tyrion or CerJaimie?)… so…. yeah.

            • Captain Button says:

              Tyrion is the youngest. His mother died giving birth to him, yet another thing for his father to hold against him.

        • onefinemess says:

          I suspect that, in the long run, I’ll like this book as a piece of the series. However, I did not particularly enjoy it as a book and, at this point, would rate it as the weakest in the series – based purely on my enjoyment (and need to *tear through* the book. I didn’t feel that at all in this book until then when I was craving a scene with Dany doing something or Jon hopping into Ghost).

          It seemed to be the main “get pieces into place” book, even moreso than the others (could be because I’ve forgotten them, but I know I didn’t get this feeling of boredom reading the other books at all), and I didn’t find the ending any kind of ending or satisfying in ANY way. Everything was a let down. I guess that I’m old fashioned and I would like *something* to grab on to. I mean, he could have had Dany roast some slavers… something! Give Bran the closing scene? Something!

    • I believe the agreement Jon signed with the Iron Bank was between the Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch and the Iron Bank. Nothing to do with Stannis.

  6. Nathan Black says:

    here’s the full spoiler review from the people at westeros.org, its posted on another site for some reason.

    http://www.hippoiathanatoi.com/Reviews/Entry/2665/

  7. FireWraith says:

    One thought that occurs to me. It makes sense why Varys would go to such lengths and plot like this – it’s what he does best. But why Illyrio? This is getting to be far beyond the ambitions of a simple merchant lord who wants influence over a kingdom, and offers assistance to an heir in exile in hopes of future favors. This is serious, hardcore, longterm planning – advance planning. What does he get from it? Revenge, maybe? If so, on whom?

    Predictions:

    Arianne Martell will marry Aegon, and Dorne will join him in rising up against the Lannisters. At present he’s thinking of Danaerys, but she’s half a continent away and also is presently unable to bear children so far as we can tell. A king needs heirs, and with Quentyn dead, that’s the only option they have of sealing an alliance with a Targaryen heir, so Aegon will get Dornish support for a marriage alliance.

    Despite having stabbed Jon Snow, the disgruntled Night’s Watch are pretty much over a barrel. They’re outnumbered by Wildlings/freemen who are on the wrong side of the wall, nor will Selyse or Melisandre likely look well on the stabbing (unless it turns out they were somehow involved in the plotting), even if they disagreed with Jon’s intent to rescue the remaining wildlings.

    I don’t think that the Boltons have beaten Stannis, regardless of what Ramsay claims (as I detailed in a post above). I don’t think Stannis ultimately will survive though, one way or another. His position seems far too desperate to become King, especially given how hard of a time he’s had in the North alone. Regardless, here’s hoping for an awful nasty horrible death for Ramsay (it won’t be nearly what he deserves).

    Dany meanwhile gains the Khalassar of Jhogo (whether by winning his allegiance or by Drogon roastifying him), and rides for Meereen. Between her forces, the turncoat sellswords, and Barristan’s forces in the city, they rout the Yunkish utterly. She winds up leaving for the West, either with the help of Victarion and his forces, or after beating him and taking the horn.

    • Josh says:

      I’m curious as to what you think motivates Varys. I really have no idea if anything that he says is honest. I could see him being a faceless man, a lost Targaryen, an expelled maester, an ally of the Others, a former Unsullied, an honest man, or something else entirely. He’s the one character I have no read on at all.

  8. Pingback: Onefinemess » book review: A Dance with Dragons

    • Josh says:

      I hadn’t thought about the dragons in the book’s title referring to coins. I like that quite a bit.

      My thought was that the various Targaryens and/or fake Targaryens were the dancing dragons. At this point there may be quite a few of them, and they (along with the actual dragons and the coins) dominate the narrative:

      Dany – definitely
      Aegon – at the least he’s the mummer’s dragon from Dany’s prophecies
      Jon – I’m convinced he’s R+L’s son
      Cersei and Jaime – I’m leaning yes right now
      Tyrion – I’m pretty sure no, especially if Cer/Jaime are
      Aemon – he doesn’t appear directly but Jon has a letter from him and remember a conversation where Aemon tells him to “kill the boy and let the man be born, which are the words Jon thinks of when decides to go for Bolton)
      The 3 eyed crow aka Brynden Rivers aka Bloodraven – I haven’t read the Dunk and Egg stories so I had to look him up; he’s a legitimized Targaryen bastard who was quite important

      • Kate Cox says:

        Yeah, my original tweet on the matter pointed out that “dragons” could colloquially be both coin and Targaryens, and the book seems to deal with both pretty heavily. Not so much with the peasant-burninating kind.

  9. ovidiu says:

    Some questions:

    Why does Wick seem to deny responsibility for the Jon Snow stabbing:

    “The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me.”

    Is it possible that he has been possessed by some other entity, like the skinchangers that seem to roam about?

    Of course one explanation is that Wick has been chosen/forced by the Brothers to carry out the assasination.

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